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Dear Dr. Morgan:
\J Thanks for sending the detailed commentary on our proposal.
We do plan another proposal. I think we can meet some of the
objections of the reviewers but not all. Let me proceed
systematically through your letter.
1. The reviewers are correct in their criticism that the
proposal is not as concrete as it should be. I had hoped to get by
with few details for two reasons: First, many of the services and
experimental home terminal system should provide will depend on
getting access to other people's computer systems, finding whether
airline or play reservations are available, and negotiating access to
these systems is a major job which I hoped to undertake as part of
the project rather than before it. Getting and keeping our access to
the Associated Press wire has involved about ten letters and two
trips to New York, and I fear that some of the other negotiations
will be just as lengthy. I guess there is no choice, but to do at
least some of this work on speculation. The second problem is that I
had hoped to be able to adapt the projects to be undertaken to the
interests and ideas of the graduate students and programmers that
would be employed on the project. We can certainly give this up.
The omission of message sending in the proposal was a
mistake. I have found the ARPA network message facilities very
useful as well as the message facilities in our own computer.
However, it is a bit more difficult to see how much benefit a small
randomly self selected group of home terminal subscribers will get
from message facilities.
I can treat the costs of home terminals in the new proposal.
I think it will be possible to make $500 terminals, and that this
price will come about in five years without a special project on
behalf of home terminals.
2. Several of the reviewers take the proposal to task for not
involving social scientists. The first reviewer even says, "But I
believe that fundamentally the major issue is one of economics and
one of changing existing social structures to allow this new
revolutionary development." I think this reviewer is mistaken in
supposing that social structures have to be changed to allow home
terminals; home terminals will be purchased in the present social
structure if the price is right and the services are worthwhile. The
widespread use of home terminals will then cause changes in social
structure.
I am not very enthusiastic about involving social scientists
but would be happy to do it if NSF is willing to pay for it. I don't
know what question they would investigate. The simple futurology of
home terminals has been done by the Institute for the Future, and it
didn't seem to me that anything clear but non-obvious came of it.
3. Here are some remarks concerning the budget:
a. The main computer resources the project will use are
computer time and disk space, and moreover our low speed multiplexor
is inadequate to add a number of external terminals. However, we are
not a cost center and are not allowed to charge directly for computer
time. Therefore, we proposed hardware that, in combination with
money we hope to get from other sources, will enable us to improve
the system to where it can handle the additional load coming from
this and other projects.
b. While we do not propose to develop the terminals
themselves, we need some in order to have some customers. Suitable
terminals today are quite expensive.
c. Leaving out the biographies of Earnest and Winograd was a
goof.
4. Concerning the analysis of the effects on users.
In my opinion, not much can be done beyond measuring how much
they use the system, what services are used how much, and whether
they are willing to pay for the services. This is because effects on
users of a pilot project will be minor until a system becomes quite
widespread.
I suppose this view will worry some reviewers, because if you
can't measure the effects until the system is widespread, what if the
effect is bad. I don't consider this much of a problem, because if
the users don't like the system, they won't use it. All we need to
prejudge is that home terminals are not like heroin, bad for you but
addicting.
5. The third reviewer doesn't see the point of home
terminals. He thinks that being able to publish something with
trivial effort is trivial. I thought that the Home Terminals paper
went into that, and I can't tell what else to say to him without
being able to question him.
He also wants an elaborate paper study about the long range
social implications of home terminals. It seems to me that such a
study would be as speculative as my original paper, and I don't want
to take part in it. Perhaps I am being unimaginative here, and some
social scientist could convince me otherwise.
6. Naturally I like the fourth reviewer, because he likes our
proposal. His worry that making everything available would lead to an
overload is mistaken. If readers today found their reading matter by
going through the card catalog of the Library of Congress seriatim,
they would also be overloaded. People's need for help would make a
market for periodical documents in the system pointing to what the
reviewers thought worthwhile. However, the system itself need not
have an official opinion about what is important, and different
"reviewing journals" would have different opinions. I agree with his
concern that efforts in privacy and security not become an effort
sink, and don't plan to put a substantial fraction of our effort into
it.
7. The fourth reviewer thinks that all the applications will
be developed as the demand develops. In my opinion, a systematic
effort is required to reach a collection of applications sufficient
to justify a user getting a terminal. He also finds this topic
inappropriate for an AI laboratory. Our interests are broader than
AI.
He also questions whether the work will have impact outside
the AI Lab. I think our A.P. based news service already has had such
impact and we haven't even published a paper about it yet. I think
publication of the results of our experiments together with letting
people log in from afar and experiment with the services will have an
impact.
8. We have discussed the possibility of a joint project with
TYMSHARE, a large national time-sharing service organization located
near us and having a number of PDP-10s. They are interested in
collaborating with us and are considering putting in some resources
of their own. Would this make the project more attractive to NSF?
We will make another proposal unless it seems hopeless. Here
are some considerations:
1. We will not propose a pure paper study of the effects of
home terminals. As far as I am concerned, the results of such a
study are incorporated in the Computer Terminals in the Home paper.
2. The minimal proposal would be to develop some home
terminal applications and test them in the lab without installing
terminals in homes. This would allow quite a small proposal, whereas
installing terminals in homes is fairly expensive and perhaps not
worthwhile unless a substantial number of services are made
available. We have already developed one more application, namely
book reading (someone gave us a mag tape of \F1Wuthering Heights\F0
and we have just finished but not tested a program for reading books
on a display terminal and remembering one's place.
3. An intermediate level would be to make some terminals with
suitable services available in the Stanford Library and in the
Student Union. We can propose this if we can think of a set of
services useful in this context. This would be relatively inexpensive
since we could expect to learn more from a few terminals than if we
put them in homes.
4. I will send you another letter with some specific
applications that we might work on shortly. However, I will also
phone you shortly to get your reaction to this letter.